Leonel Fernández: Geopolitical Tension and Democratic Challenges Mark the Global Horizon in 2024

The former president of the Dominican Republic warned of the current geopolitical situation and regional conflicts in his opening remarks during the VI Global Forum on Latin America and the Caribbean, 2024. The Forum will officially open today Friday, October 4, at the Center for Development Economics and Policy (CDEP), Columbia University, in New York City.

New York – The former president of the Dominican Republic, Leonel Fernández, warned this Thursday, October 3, 2024, of the risks the world faces, amid the geopolitical tensions and conflicts that are taking place in different regions of the planet, despite the fact that the United States economy, a reference for financial markets, has recently sent notes of optimism with the reductions in interest rates.

In his opening remarks at the Forum, Fernández spoke as the president and founder of the Global Foundation for Democracy and Development (Funglode) and its sister institution in the United States, the Global Foundation for Democracy and Development (GFDD). Both organizations organized the Forum in coordination with the Center for Development Economics and Policy. The Forum has the support of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the Institute of Latin American Studies at Columbia University (ILAS) and Global Americans (GA), a recognized U.S. think-tank.

He recalled that just a couple of weeks ago, the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 50 points, considering that inflation is within the 3% target. The measure sent a positive signal throughout that the U.S. economy is overcoming fears that it would not be able to have a soft landing after the turbulence experienced during and after the Covid pandemic. “Markets have responded positively to this decision by the highest monetary authorities in the U.S., and expect further cuts before the end of the year,” he said.

However, he stated that “as we meet today, the world is at risk.” He also referred to the geopolitical tensions and conflicts that are taking place in different regions of our planet. The former president highlighted that the oldest and most persistent conflict is the one that is currently taking place in the Middle East. He recalled that almost exactly a year ago, on October 7, a terrorist attack in Israel, led by the militant group Hamas, killing 1,200 people, has sparked a bloody war in Gaza, where more than 40,000 people have been killed, mostly civilians, and more than 2 million have been forced to leave their homes.

More recently, he said, the military conflict has moved to southern Lebanon, where the top leadership of Hezbollah has been practically eliminated, including its main leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Israel now has troops on the ground, giving way to a response from Iran, which has launched hundreds of missiles into Israeli territory in recent days. He also noted that Pope Francis has called for an immediate ceasefire, as has U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres, while the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden, while supporting Israel, is changing its stance in favor of diplomatic negotiations.

For Fernandez, the main concern is that this conflict could lead to a much broader regional military confrontation. He explained that nearly three years after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and with autumn approaching, Ukraine says its forces in the eastern Donetsk region are facing more frequent battles than in months past, adding that “after a surprising assault by Ukrainian troops on Russian soil, it now appears that with more than 200 clashes a day, Russia is racing to break Ukrainian strongholds.”

In his overall review of the geopolitical situation, he also recalled that some 10 days ago the nations of the world met in New York during a Summit at the United Nations to adopt the “Pact of the Future,” where its Secretary-General, António Guterres, called it an effort to “recover multilateralism from the abyss.” To this he added: “The United Nations Development Program has called 2024 a “super year for elections.” The Economist dubbed it “the biggest election year in history,” while Time magazine referred to it as the “ultimate election year.”

Said Fernández: “The fact is that in 2024 more voters than ever before in history will go to the polls in more than 70 countries, representing 4.1 billion citizens, or half of the world’s population. This represents a very relevant test for democracy as a system. Does the fact that we have more voters than ever exercising their right to vote mean that we have more democracy? Not necessarily. That doesn’t seem to be the case, and there are clear examples of electoral processes that are far from transparent or fair,” said the former president and prominent political analyst.

He referred to the U.S. presidential elections, indicating that everyone is aware that they will take place in five weeks, on November 5. In this regard, he stated that although it seems that Kamala Harris will have no problem winning the popular vote, the narrow margins in six key states will keep everyone on alert until the last electoral college is secured. If it favors Donald Trump, it would be the second time that he has won the presidency without the majority of votes, he explained.

In any case – said Fernández – these American elections have been full of surprises and twists and turns, worthy of competing with well-known suspense thrillers such as those written by Tom Clancy, Ian Flemming or Agatha Christie. From the multiple legal proceedings that Donald Trump faced, the two assassination attempts on the former president, to the catastrophic first presidential debate, it was more than impossible that the incumbent president, Joe Biden, could possibly recover from such an unprecedented situation, he pointed out.

As the world watches these developments, the question arises as to how the interconnectedness of geopolitical conflicts will influence electoral decisions and economic stability. Fernández concluded that the uncertainty provoked by the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, coupled with fears of a broader crisis, may mobilize voters everywhere, prompting them to demand stronger and more responsible leadership.